One common belief in the NFL analysis business is drafting a running back in the first round is one of the worst decisions any general manager can make. At first, I was incredulous. So, I looked to recent history to see if there was any truth to this thought. What I found was staggering.

I noticed that none of the most recent Super Bowl winners invested heavily in their starting running back. The Buccaneers picked up Leonard Fournette for peanuts after the Jaguars cut him. In 2020, the Chiefs started Damien Williams at running back; an undrafted player let go by the Dolphins. Since the 2010 season, only three former first-round running backs were on a Super Bowl-winning team. And, of those three, only one of those was still on the team that drafted them. But, to put that in perspective, four Super Bowl winners started running backs that weren’t even drafted in any of the seven rounds. This trend means that a team does not need a first-round draft pick at running back to succeed. Meanwhile, over that time, six of the Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were first-round picks, and not a single undrafted quarterback has started for a Super Bowl-winning team. And, in the 55-year history of the NFL, only one undrafted quarterback has started and won a Super Bowl.

Then I saw that since 2017, nine teams had selected a running back in the first round, but only two of those teams are currently projected to make the playoffs. One of those two teams who did take a running back in the first round and is projected to make the playoffs is the Patriots, who have received no help from their former first-round pick Sony Michel, as they traded him before the season even started. However, I want to examine more closely why running backs are so different from any other football position (except for special teams, of course).

There have been so many very talented running backs taken in the first since 2017. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are two of the most physically gifted players in the league. Yet, both of their teams (the Panthers and Giants, respectively) are below .500. Of course, one could make the argument that their teams can not pin their struggles this season on their elite running backs, as both McCaffrey and Barkley has missed almost half of the games this year due to injury. However, this leads to the first argument that spending a high draft pick on a running back is silly. Durability is a massive concern for running backs.

If you asked NFL fans at the beginning of the year who the four best running backs in the league are, almost all of them would list Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara, with Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb not far behind. This year, every single one of those players has missed multiple games due to injury already, still with six weeks left in the season.

This trend of running backs getting injured also makes sense. Think about the running back position like this, every time they touch the ball, they end in one of three locations, in the endzone, out of bounds, or (most commonly) on the ground. Each touch resulting in one of those three outcomes means that they are tackled very often, leading to plenty of potential for injury. Of course, one can make the same argument for receivers, they also end each position in one of those three ways, yet there are usually no qualms with taking receivers in the first round. However, the volume is drastically different between the two positions. So far this year, Derrick Henry has the most touches for all running backs with 202. The receiver with the most receptions, Cooper Kupp, has only 85 this year. That is fewer than 32 running backs. This volume that running backs receive means that they are tackled much more than other positions, and thus, they are the most injury-prone players.

As I said earlier, most people agree that the elite running backs in the NFL are Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb, with Austin Ekeler and Johnathan Taylor thriving this year. Of those nine elite running backs, only one was a first-round pick. This trend shows that you do not need to take a running back in the first round to find a fantastic running back. There is a minimal talent gap between first-round caliber running backs and those drafted in the later rounds or those who aren’t drafted. James Robinson, who went undrafted in the 2020 NFL draft, has been having a much better career than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a first-round pick in the same draft.

A first-round draft selection is one of the most valuable things an NFL team has. With a first-round pick, you have your pick of the litter of talented college prospects who will be mandated to come to your team if you want them. And especially if you struggled the year before, you have an even better opportunity to pick the right player that can save your team. The main reason that the Browns had so little success during the 2000s is that they kept wasting their first-round draft choices. They drafted bust after bust. I won’t go through all of them, but the lowlights include Braylon Edwards, Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, and Barkevious Mingo. However, in 2016, they started drafting better. Since 2016, they have selected Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Jedrick Wills, and Baker Mayfield. Those four players were significant contributors to the Browns’ first playoff run in 18 years and helped turn the franchise around. I don’t know if they would even have had a winning season without each one of those guys. So, why would an NFL team use such a valuable recourse at a position where they could get similar production for a much smaller investment?

Overall, it appears that NFL teams should avoid selecting running backs in the first round and, instead, look to address that position later in the draft.